TINUBU ON VP MUSLIM/MUSLIM TICKET CONUNDRUM (PERSPECTIVE)

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Remi and Bola Tinubu

By Dr. Legend Asuelime, (Ph:D)

 

If I were to help BAT decide on VP choice.

I will encourage him to narrow down on the most strategic option and not a sentimental one.

I will encourage him to pay little attention to twitterverse and metaverse.

Some Facts and Questions will guide my recommendations.

Did a Muslim/Muslim Ticket ever win Presidential election in Nigeria?

The Answer is YES

1993 MKO Abiola picked a Muslim Northerner and won

Will South West APC voters care if VP is Muslim and will they vote another party because of that?

Answer is NO.

South West is the most religious tolerant group in Nigeria. BAT will win 70% of the vote.

Will BAT get a major boost of South East votes if he picks a Christian Northerner?

The Answer is NO.

At least 90% of South East votes are going to be shared between Atiku & Obi.

So that region should be less relevant for BAT strategic thought process

NB: Kudos to the potential 10% from there who knows how to reason independently outside the Mob & Boxed grouping, enough to vote BAT.

APC is likely to get on or about 45-50% of South South vote.

They are the second most religious tolerant group in Nigeria.

But is their vote going to be a deciding factor in 2023?

Answer is that the probability is LOW.

The margin will be too minimal.

In an election that has Atiku on Ballot, a Former VP, Moslem and Northerner…

Will an unpopular Christian VP balance the odds in Favour of BAT in the Moslem North?

The Answer is NO.

Will a Popular Moslem VP like Zulum / balance the odds in Favour of BAT in the Moslem North?

The Answer is YES

If 2023 is about winning, and winning against a formidable foe like Atiku.

My recommendation for BAT is to go for Popular Muslim Northerner like Zulum/Ganduje/Shettima, who have a track record of winning elections.

Without a single loss.

Until you have an idea of a Christian Northerner who can pull Northern Votes like or more than Zulum/Ganduje/Shettima, they remain my personal preference.

Election is mathematics, not an emotional therapy

That is why it ends with the counting of numbers.