By Ena OFUGARA
It is early and unclear. But if I have to stake my child’s school fees on who will win the presidency, sadly, AT THIS TIME, my smart money is Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
1. Northern governors are ambitious. They know Atiku winning will make them wait 16 years, instead of Tinubu’s 8 years
2. The Northern governors and most of Nigeria is APC
3. Tinubu is much wealthier than Atiku. He is unafraid of EFCC, and has amassed wealth beyond beyond, Buhari packs his bullion van in Tinubu’s house
3. The national coffers is APC
4. The police and army and electoral structure is APC
5. The only popular candidate is Peter Obi. All other voting is strategic, religious, party and money-controlled.
6. Peter Obi will mop up all independent voters who would have chosen PDP.
7. Atiku picked a Veepee that is a governing, and not electoral powerhouse. Okowa has to be introduced to the nation. He does not come with name recognition like Wike or Peter Obi that was Atiku’s vice
8. Okowa, Atiku’s VP choice is igbo without the igbo backing. Igbos have their man in Peter Obi.
9. Okowa, Atiku’s Veepee choice, has a fragmented PDP in his home state. His choice of governor has caused a deep rift between he and the Ijaws, whom he promised governorship (his VP Otuaro, Tompolo’s choice walked out of the voting in the primaries)
10. Okowa’s choice of governor is not the choice of the UPU (Urhobo progress union) and a power broker like Ibori and Amori and much of the elite of the state, causing deep unexpressed annoyance and fragmentation of PDP
10. Okowa’s Delta state is not a given even for PDP, as Ovie Omo-Agege has a history of beating his PDP opponents.
11. Neither Okowa nor Atiku are talkers. Peter Obi was an exciting veepee under Atiku in 2019. Yemi Osinbajo was born to speak, making up for the quiet Buhari. The PDP ticket is a boring a d uninspiring ticket, truth be told.
12. Yemi Osinbajo came with a united Yoruba base and one with a steady ready voters from Redeemed and all
of Christendom. Both Peter Obi and Okowa are Catholic and Anglican. Peter Obi will win the demography.
13. With Amaechi in Rivers and a Wike that will be leaking his wounds, and the way deal-maker Tinubu will reach out to Wike who has been played for a mugu by Tambuwal and Atiku, the block votes of Rivers will not be BLOCK VOTES. TinubU and Peter Obi will cut into PDP votes there.
14. Cross Rivers is APC. Jonathan is no longer very very PDP. Akpabio is APC. APC won Bayelsa but for technicality. Two of three senators in Delta are APC. Block votes from these areas will be non-existent as Peter Obi will have a large chunk and APC will make inroads.
15. Soludo of Anambra was recently APC and a Tinubu man. Obiano, former governor of Anambra, has been flirting with APC. APC has governors in the East, showing it is not as hated as we believe. There will be no block votes
16. Atiku has struggled in the North because of rumors of “sexual orientation” that do not go well with the Muslim North (Rumors I said) He may never enjoy the block votes Almajiris know to give en bloc.
17.Tinubu will lock down his west, and pseudo western states like Kwara and Kogi, get a nice number in the south south. Gladly allow Peter Obi wreak havoc on PDP votes in the East, and rely on the North to honour their agreement as they once did with Obasanjo and Jonathan where they rejected Buhari based on their honor and agreement, a thing we saw them honor in the primaries.
So, as much as you hate Tinubu, Muslim-Muslim ticket or not, (Christians are majorly mugus. We no vote bigot Buhari? We no see am for church with Adeboye? we no forget every of his history?) if you are to place a bet today, vote Peter Obi, but if you have to place a significant bet, PLACE IT ON TINUBU.
Tinubu has installed too many governors, and has too much structure and Atiku has not helped himself with his VP pick.
The heart says Peter Obi. Smart money says TINUBU WINS.